Why a bad outcome doesn't make it a bad decision

TLDR; Our minds are not rational, most of the time we take shortcuts in our decisions which cause errors in our decisions. To overcome these, we need practical tools which Poker can teach us. We cannot be 100% certain our decision was right or wrong based on the result due to the influence of luck and or incomplete information.So we should not just put the decision as right or wrong but calibrate it between different shades of gray. A good decision involves following a process where we try to accurately map the state of our knowledge and taking the best guess based on that. 

Our minds are not built for rationality

Our minds have two different systems of thinking. System 1 is the reflexive mind. It has evolved to keep us safe, help us live in this world by creating a world that makes sense. It is fast and it takes shortcuts in thinking which may or may not be true. System 2 is the deliberative mind. It follows a more methodical thinking process and is used to take decisions about what we want to achieve where we think carefully. This is slow and energy consuming. 

The important thing is to realize that we only decide what to do using deliberative mind but when we are executing those decisions more often than not, we will be using the reflexive mind. Most of the errors in our decision making happen because of the pressure on the reflexive mind to do its job fast and automatically. 

The deliberative mind is already overtaxed and more will power or being aware of the fact that reflexive mind doesn't think carefully doesn't help us make use of deliberative mind more. We can only look for practical workarounds to overcome these limitations. 

Poker is a great place to learn how to execute well in face of uncertainty

Poker is a good place to learn these practical workarounds and poker players face the same challenges. They have to take decisions fast and under pressure but still have to make sure these decisions align with their long-term goals taken with a deliberative mind. 

Decision quality doesn't depend on results 

We tend to judge a decision based on the outcome. But an outcome may not be correlated to the decision due to the influence of luck and hidden information. What makes a good decision is a good process where we try to try to accurately represent the state of our knowledge. It necessarily involves some version of I don't know. 

Best poker players are aware of this and instead of looking for 100% certainty they take their best guess and calibrating their decisions along the way.

When we know we are not 100% sure we will not fall into the black and white thinking pattern where we put decisions in either the right or wrong bucket but we will see different shades of gray and we calibrate our decisions based on these. When we misrepresent the world in the extremes of right or wrong, it limits our ability to take the right decisions.  

We have to redefine wrong due to influence of luck & incomplete information

We have to redefine wrong as we can't be 100% sure that our decision caused the result.The decision might have been good but luck or incomplete information intervened. When we redefine wrong, we can let go of the anguish we feel when we get a bad result and we can let go of the happiness when we get a right result. We can get off the roller coaster. 

Since we can't be 100% certain but we keep taking decisions, it means we are always guessing. It helps us allocate our resources. 

Source: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke

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